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More than 13 million Americans could become climate refugees by 2100 if the uncollectible sea - level rise come to kick the bucket , new inquiry hint .
Rising seascaused by mood change could for good flood hundred of U.S. counties , according to the subject field . The hardest - hit county will be Miami - Dade , Florida , where 2 million people could be forced to relocate . In fact , Florida is base to about one-half of these likely U.S.climate refugee .
" The Great Migration of southerly African - Americans from the South into the North is pretty much the same kind of order of magnitude we ’re talking about it if we do n’t adequately address sea - level rise , " said study co - author Mathew Hauer , a human ecology doctoral candidate at the University of Georgia in Athens . [ See Which Counties Could House the U.S. Climate Refugees ]
However , city , county , state and local government can take dance step to mitigate some of these effects , while global study to stem climate variety could intend the worst - case scenario never come to pass , the research worker wrote in the paper , which was publish today ( March 14 ) in the journal Nature Climate Change .
Growing coastal universe
retiring studies have provided estimates , based on current population level , of how many people climate variety would affect . However , some of the quickest - turn areas of the country are situated on the coast , in low - lying areas vulnerable toclimate alteration .
To get a better sense of how many multitude would be affected in the future if current outgrowth rate are sustained , Hauer and his colleagues analyzed census information from counties around the continental United States . The team looked at historical ontogeny rate in coastal regions , and then used those numbers to project future universe levels . Based on the projections , the report found that population in coastal areas could be up to three times that of current degree .
The squad then combine those estimates with estimate of ocean - storey salary increase from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ( NOAA ) .
In the NOAA ’s worst - case scenario , the ocean will rise about 6 feet ( 1.8 meters ) , on average , by 2100 . These NOAA estimates describe for permanentcoastal floodingbut not other potential hazards of climate change , such as increased hurricane numbers and loudness or tempest surges .
If there is no mood change palliation , 13 million multitude would be forced to move because their homes become partly submerged under water , the researchers found . In a better scenario , with only 3 foot ( 0.9 m ) of ocean - level rise , only 4.2 million mass would be forced to move , the discipline found .
palliation
Of naturally , the meg displaced are not a foregone decision . For one , historical growth rates may not be a good forecaster for next growth rates ; some low - lying coastal areas are already so densely populated that they are unlikely to originate in the future , while others may be actively warn growth in vulnerable area or taking footstep to mitigate clime shock , Hauer said .
Right now , mood change policy is often driven from the bottom up , by county- and city - stratum zoning laws , Hauer say .
Still , county , cities and states can take a smorgasbord of footstep to quash a forced mass - migration , he said .
" You have protection , you have accommodation and you also have hideaway , " Hauer told Live Science .
For instance , in some areas , sea walls or marsh renovation may be sufficient to prevent the worst effect of ocean - horizontal surface rise , while in other places , district laws that discourage future building altogether may be the smartest approach , Hauer say .
" New York City is going to be able to adapt differently than , say , New Orleans , " Hauer enjoin .
