How many COVID-19 cases are going undetected ? A new sketch has attempted to gather a more realistic picture of the novel coronavirus eruption by using numerical modeling to calculate the number of unreported case of COVID-19 in early March .
cover in the journalInfection Control and Hospital Epidemiology , mathematician from Washington University in St. Louis and Augusta University in Georgia looked at the number of confirmed cases in an area by March 9 ( when information was available up to ) , then used a numerical simulation totake into chronicle an expanse ’s " transmission probability , " which bet at the area population density , the portion of the population hold out in close urban arena , and important demographic , such as old age . They even integrate information looking at unexampled come forth selective information about how long the computer virus survives on a multifariousness of surface and in the air .
By their working , Italy reported 1 suit for every 4 unreported lawsuit as of March 9 , 2020 , when it had the highest case in Europe . South Korea was also guess to be report 1 case for about every 4 literal cases as per this metre . In Germany , the ratio was as low as 1 to 3 case , while France had a proportion of 1 to 5 case , andIranhad 1 in 34 reported .
In China , where the outbreakfirst start , the investigator argued there could be a much bigger difference between confirmed cases and unreported cases . give the size of China ’s population , they grow a range motley from 1 in 149 to 1 in 1,104 reported case to those unconfirmed . That think of the modeling predicts between 12 million to 89 million COVID-19 cases might not have been report in China alone by early March .
The study authors note that the US had deficient information at the time to reach any concrete conclusions . However , their preliminary results establish on the limited datum available for then paint a picture the US had perhaps as many as90,000 pillowcase as of March 9 , but had only reported around 500 case at the time .
" We wanted to provide information on the real order of magnitude of the problem , not just the tip of the crisphead lettuce , " Dr Arni S R Srinivasa Rao , director of the Laboratory for Theory and Mathematical Modeling in the Division of infective Diseases at the Medical College of Georgia at Augusta University , read in astatement .
“ With good number , we can better measure how long the computer virus will persist and how bad it will get . Without these Book of Numbers , how can health fear systems and workers organize for what is postulate ? "
Of course , all of these figures are just anticipation and estimates based on data , not sustain numbers . Most crucially , the approximation only looked for the number of under - reporting before the first height of COVID-19 up to the particular date of March 9 , so the findings might not necessarily account for many of the events or trend over the preceding calendar month or so . Dr Rao also notes the accuracy of reported cases likely has improved since March 9 thanks to theincreased availability of reliable testingand governments finally rolling out such testing .
